Baccarat is a card game that requires some degree of skill but mostly relies on luck to win. The game can be played with anywhere from seven to 14 players and two hands of cards dealt. The Player hand and Banker hand are compared by the dealer and the winner determined. Players can place bets on either the Player hand, Banker hand, or a tie. Bets placed on both the Player and Banker are paid out in accordance with the odds of each outcome. The Player bet has the best odds but a higher house edge, while a Banker bet has lower odds and a higher payout, depending on whether commission is charged or not.
Each player is given a score card and pencil to keep track of the outcome of each hand. While some players may be tempted to analyze their score cards and look for trends, it is generally considered a waste of time. The smarter player will bet on the banker every time and leave their score cards alone.
The game of Baccarat has been around for centuries. It was introduced to Italy in the 16th century by an ambassador named Felice Falguiere and quickly became a popular pastime for nobility and wealthy families. In the 19th century, Baccarat reached the United States and has since become one of the most popular casino games worldwide.
Baccarat has many variants, but the rules are relatively simple. There are seven to 14 seats for players and a dealer’s area, and only two hands of cards are dealt: the Player’s and the Banker’s. Picture cards and the number 10 are worth zero points, while cards numbered 2-9 are valued at their face value, and the ace is worth one point. The Banker’s and the Player’s totals are calculated by adding up the values of all the cards in each hand. If the Player’s or Banker’s total is 8 or 9, it is a “natural” and wins, and all bets are paid out. If the first two cards don’t total 8 or 9, a third card is drawn.
In this study, we analyzed a dataset of real baccarat wagers using an online casino with unique customer identifiers. These identifiers allow for demographic analysis, including age and ethnicity. Data was obtained from SEGA SAMMY HOLDINGS, Inc. through its electronic card and chip recognition system that tracks all baccarat bets throughout the day. Customer names were anonymized prior to the analysis to ensure confidentiality.
The results consistently demonstrated that baccarat gamblers tend to follow the trend, suggesting that positive recency plays an important role in their betting behavior. This finding aligns with the hot hand fallacy and supports our hypothesis that this tendency is driven by frequency rather than streak length. It is worth noting, however, that the observed behavior may also be influenced by other cognitive distortions and behavioral biases. Further research is necessary to determine the underlying mechanisms. However, the present findings suggest that the prevalence of the following-trend strategy in baccarat could serve as a valuable indicator for other pathological gambling behaviors.