Baccarat is a popular game of chance where gamblers bet on which hand will have the total value closest to 9. The dealer deals two cards to both the player and banker, then follows specific drawing rules to determine the winner. The game originated in Europe and reached the United States in the 19th century. It has since gained popularity due to its relative simplicity and ease of play. Baccarat is a positive expectation game, meaning that the odds of winning are higher for the banker than the player.
Baccarat has many variations, including chemin de fer and baccarat banque. However, it is generally agreed that the earliest mention of the game in print was in Charles Van-Tenac’s book Album des jeux, published in 1847. The name ‘baccarat’ appears to be derived from the French word for railway, as it was commonly known as “chemin de fer” at that time. It is unclear whether this early version of the game was based on tarot cards or not, but the name certainly seems to indicate that it predates punto banco by some time.
The results consistently demonstrated that most baccarat gamblers preferred betting in accordance with trends, an outcome consistent with the hot outcome fallacy (Chapman, 1967). Analysis 1 also showed that this tendency to follow the trend increased monotonically as streak length increased, suggesting that a belief in a positive momentum effect is an important component of this phenomenon.
One possible explanation for this finding is that baccarat is unique in that the scoreboard displays the outcomes (player win, banker win, or tie) of previous games. This emphasizes the continuity of past outcomes and encourages players to expect that a streak will continue. In contrast, roulette scores are recorded from left to right and do not accentuate past results in the same way, which may weaken the effects of positive recency.
Another possible explanation is that baccarat gamblers rely on different cognitive mechanisms than those involved in other gambling games. For example, while a doubling strategy such as the Martingale is common in poker, it is not so prevalent in baccarat. In poker, the doubling strategy requires a large bankroll and a high degree of discipline to be effective. In baccarat, it is simply not practical to double bets after each loss, but the gambler’s belief in the positive momentum effect can lead to this type of behavior.
In addition, baccarat gamblers might be influenced by the fact that the game is fixed in time and cannot be modified after it has started, unlike other casino games such as roulette. This feature, which can reinforce the positive momentum effect, makes it harder to control baccarat bets and may influence the gambler’s overall level of risk-taking. The findings of this study suggest that the positive momentum effect is a significant contributor to problem gambling behaviors and should be taken into account when developing treatment interventions for this population. However, the detailed cognitive processes underlying this effect remain untested.